We all predict the future. Our teachers told us that when we read a story, we subconsciously try to predict what will happen next in the story. That’s part of the joy of reading. Sometimes the author gives us advice about what’s to come, for example, using original typography.
Here is an example of how the average person can predict. Someone buys an old car. A friend says, “You just wasted your money. It’ll break in a year (prediction). You should have bought a new one.” In addition to making many predictions, we can also cover our songs when the predictions don’t come true. If the car is replaced after a year, a friend might say, “Sure, it’s been over a year. You’ve taken better care of it than most.” Two years later, a friend said, “I guess you just got lucky and got better than average care.” Few people say, “I was wrong in my prediction because your car is still moving.”
Of course we mortals do this.
Because we are not professional forecasters. We all know that professionals can predict better. So they are consulted for the knowledge they share.
Oh, maybe not so good. A few years ago, a psychologist decided to investigate how well professional magicians are doing. Philip Fetlock is a professor at Berkeley’s Haas Business School. He began to investigate whether experts who made their living in politics and economics could accurately predict what would happen in his field. He met people who regularly gave advice and spoke publicly about various trends in their field. A total of 284 experts were selected for the study. In the study, experts made an astonishing 82,361 predictions.
Let’s see what these experts did. Please go through the envelope.
Well, let’s see the results of these super mortals. There must be something wrong here. The results are unimpressive. Do they feel better than you or me? No, not In fact, they were worse than the average person thought.
The study also showed that the more experts know, the less confident they are in predicting future world events. Doctor Fetlock points out those experts very quickly reach a point where their expertise no longer has an advantage over non-experts. He does not believe that experts in any field can be more successful than non-experts who are intelligent enough to know the events and ideas. Their research also showed that forecasters known as experts tend to over-predict. He concludes that “search professionals are more confident than their counterparts who have made their lives out of the limelight.”
It is scary. Why are our experts doing so poorly? The best judgments are based on human nature. People love righteousness but hate error. So when we do the math (predictions), we like our choices. Either way, we’ll keep the pick and love it to the bitter end. Sounds like exactly what was bothering the experts.
You would think that really smart people learn from their mistakes.
Although experts are smarter than most of us, they are also human and capable of making mistakes that affect everyone. One misconception (among many) that may explain why intellectuals fail to learn from their failed predictions is called confirmation bias. This fallacy reflects the tendency of many people to reject new information that contradicts what they already believe. Thus, when experts genuinely believe that their predictions tend to come true, they automatically refuse to admit that they have failed.
Other psychologists argue that even more data may prevent accurate predictions. If the expert has more information than we do, he can gather more facts to support his predictions. While these 토토사이트 may be more appealing to the average person, they still have the same failure rate.
Even if the prediction comes true, the expert assumes great certainty. Doctor Fetlock found this inconsistent with the data he had collected. In other words, the experts were actually cautious before making more predictions